You are here

Metals Industry News

LIVE FUTURES REPORT 13/02: LME prices climb higher; ali capped by huge 166,000 tonne delivery

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 10:02
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have retreated from early morning highs after a significant delivery into LME-listed warehouses in Asia caused on-warrant stock to surge by 18%.
Categories: Metals Industry News

South Korea’s PPS awards zinc tender at lower premium

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 09:34
South Korea’s Public Procurement Service (PPS) has awarded a zinc tender at a premium of $147 per tonne, which is lower than the premium of a tender it awarded a month ago.
Categories: Metals Industry News

Metals morning view: Second day of rebounds underway in the metals

Base Metals News - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 08:25

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are recovering again this morning, Tuesday February 13, with prices up by an average of 0.7%. Copper ($6,924 per tonne) and nickel lead the way with gains of 0.9%, while lead is the laggard with a 0.3% increase.

Volume has been average with 8,757 lots traded as of 07.07 am London time, although half of that has been in copper.

This follows gains on Monday for all the base metals with the exception of lead that closed down by 0.8%, while the others closed with gains averaging 0.8%.

The precious metals are also firmer this morning with gains averaging 0.2%, with spot gold prices up by 0.2% at $1,325.63 per oz. This follows gains of 0.8% yesterday.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the base metals are for the most part firmer, with lead prices bucking the trend with a 0.4% fall, while the rest are up by an average of 1.1%. Nickel is out in front with a 1.9% gain, followed by copper (+1.7%) at 52,240 yuan ($8,266) per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up by 0.7% at 51,400-51,700 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio stands at 7.54, unchanged from Monday. The fact copper future prices are up by more than spot prices, suggests the rally has continued since the spot price was established.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices are up by 1.3% at 529 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.6%, gold prices are up by 0.7% and silver prices are up by 1.1%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are rebounding, up by 0.52% at $62.96 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries remains firm at 2.85%, as is the German 10-year bund yield at 0.75%.

Equities in Asia are for the most part stronger today: Kospi (+0.41%), CSI 300 (+1.17%), Hang Seng (+1.36%), ASX 200 (0.6%), while the Nikkei that was closed on Monday is off by 0.65% this morning. This follows rebounds in western markets on Monday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 1.70% at 24,601.27, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up by 1.27% at 3,368.25.

The dollar index is edging lower again, it was recently quoted at 89.95, the low being 88.43 on January 25. The euro (1.2316) is working higher, sterling (1.2277) is weaker, the Australian dollar (0.7855) is consolidating and the yen (107.91) continues to strengthen. The yuan at 6.3375 is weaker, while the other emerging currencies we follow are consolidating.

The economic calendar shows data on Japanese machine tool orders, which came in slightly stronger than previously, data out later includes French private payrolls, UK consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), retail price index (RPI) and house price index (HPI) and the US small business index. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Loretta Mester is speaking.

With a second day of gains getting underway in the base metals and with equities rebounding too, it does look as though the shake-out from last week may have run its course driven by dip buying. That said, further bouts of selling could emerge into the rebound, so we would expect some choppy trading for a while, especially with the Lunar New Year starting on Thursday and running until February 21. Underlying sentiment seems to be bullish, we should get an update on how bullish it is by seeing how much follow-through buying there is.

Precious metals sold off in line with the other metals but dip buying is already being seen. The shake-out in broader markets may encourage some investors to diversify their portfolios further, which could support gold.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Metals morning view: Second day of rebounds underway in the metals appeared first on FastMarkets.

Categories: Metals Industry News

METALS MORNING VIEW 13/02: Second day of rebounds underway in the metals

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 08:25
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange are recovering again this morning, Tuesday February 13, with prices up by an average of 0.7%. Copper ($6,924 per tonne) and nickel lead the way with gains of 0.9%, while lead is the laggard with a 0.3% increase.
Categories: Metals Industry News

MJP aluminium stocks rise in January on delayed arrivals

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 07:15
Primary aluminium stocks at the three main Japanese ports (MJP) rose 14.6% month on month in January, according to Marubeni Corp data released on Tuesday February 13.
Categories: Metals Industry News

EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEF 13/02: SHFE nickel prices lead on the upside; primary aluminium supply to tighten in ’18; Sherritt ramping up Ambatovy

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 04:45
Good morning from Metal Bulletin’s offices in Shanghai as we bring you the latest news and pricing stories on Tuesday February 13.
Categories: Metals Industry News

LIVE FUTURES REPORT 13/02: SHFE nickel prices buoyed by positive fundamentals

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 04:15
Base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were broadly stronger during Asian morning trading on Tuesday February 13, with nickel prices leading on the upside with a gain of 0.8%, while lead (-0.3%) was the only metal to lose ground.
Categories: Metals Industry News

IZA CONF 2018: Miners, smelters discuss 2018 zinc TCs in $140-155 per tonne range, sources say

Base Metals Market - Tue, 02/13/2018 - 02:45
Miners are once again likely to secure a reduction in zinc treatment charges (TCs) for 2018, although perhaps not by as much as their initial offers to smelters would suggest.
Categories: Metals Industry News

LIVE FUTURES REPORT 12/02: LME base metals retreat from earlier highs; copper leads the push higher

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 17:21
The copper price trading on the London Metal Exchange managed to hold on to most of its early morning gains to close $76 per tonne higher on Monday February 12.
Categories: Metals Industry News

LIVE FUTURES REPORT 12/02: Comex copper recovers in opening session

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 16:05
Comex copper prices bounced back on Monday February 12 morning in the US due to a weaker dollar and the market stabilizing after heavy losses last week.
Categories: Metals Industry News

Alumina prices succumb to buyers’ weak appetites

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 15:11
Spot alumina prices moved lower last week as availability of spot cargoes in the Pacific countered specific tightness for Australian material.
Categories: Metals Industry News

EXPERT VIEW: Metals sell-off – not as bad as it could have been?

Base Metals News - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 12:12

The early-February sell-off in London Metal Exchange base metals seems to have run its course for now, but it may have not been as extreme as it could have been, ironically because of the growing influence of computerized trading systems.

At the end of December last year, copper traded as high as $7,291.50 per tonne, and was pretty much maintained at solid levels comfortably above $7,000 for the first month of 2018 – the metals market in general was perhaps in the foothills of a bull market.

But in just over a week, prices have fallen back considerably – the decline since that end-2017 high watermark to a sub-$6,800 close on Friday February 9 was virtually without respite. At a two-month low of $6,733, the market had shed over $550 or nearly 7.70% – most of it in just over a week.

There is a similar tale in aluminium. From $2,290.50 on the last trading day of 2017, the market has dropped close to $170 or nearly 7.5%.

Indeed, this is the picture right across the base metals: Hard-won early-2018 gains wiped out by the knock-on impact of sharp global equity market declines.

Turmoil in stock markets was the catalyst, but the early-2018 stock market pummeling is not entirely due to ashen-faced panic-stricken investors losing their collective nerves. Rather, it incorporates a significant element of high-speed computer-based activity.

And that may not have the same damaging impact on both equities and base metals in the medium-to longer-term.

The reasons for the wash-out in equities – led by US stock markets – are well-documented. The perception that US Federal Reserve policy tightening will happen quicker than had been previously thought is being mirrored by other central banks – the United Kingdom’s Bank of England hinted as much this week.

Factors at play 
A decade after the Great Financial Crash, the world is in the throes of synchronized economic growth, while the era of abundant quantitative easing (money printing) is coming to an end. Normality is returning, and inflation, which has not been tamed, will have to be tackled by interest rate increases.

None of this has significantly changed the micro-fundamental outlook for base metals in the longer-term. Those fundamentals are broadly positive – rising demand in China and other key economies, some questions over supply prospects for the likes of copper and increased investment interest.

That is helping the LME – January ADV (average daily volume), when UNA (unallocated) trades were adjusted out, was little changed from a year ago at 622,560 lots, another sign that the trend of falling turnover has been arrested and possibly reversed.

But, as has been the case for decades now, all the world’s financial markets are inter-linked, so commodities cannot remain immune to what happens elsewhere. Inevitably, volatility in wider financials ripples through to the LME complex.

And that is no bad thing. Increased price volatility means wider movements and provides more attractive trading opportunities. Apocryphally, LME brokers say February turnovers have been good so far. For example, last Friday heavyweights copper and aluminium notched up turnovers of over 20,000 contracts on Select. Zinc volume was over 12,000 lots, while nickel was close to 10,000 contracts

It is worth remembering that the current washout in US equities, which is the catalyst for the mirror-image falls in China, Asia, Europe and the UK, is somewhat overdue. For over a year, Wall Street has enjoyed almost uninterrupted advances. So a correction, technical retracement – whatever it is called – has been on the cards for some time.

And although the down-days on the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have looked dramatic – 4% daily more than once, they are not game-changers, as they were in previous crashes. Meanwhile, the nature of trading, as well as behavior, not only in stocks and shares, but also in commodities, is different from a generation ago.

In October 1987, the Dow Jones saw in excess of 20% wiped off share values in just one day. While not so extreme, there were similar routs in the early 1990s and towards the end of the decade when the dot-com bubble burst.

In all these – October 1987 in particular – the world’s central bankers and finance ministers hastily took to the airwaves and media. The message was that nothing had really changed and there was no need to panic. But panic there was, and it continued for days, exacerbating price falls.

The reason why the likes of US Fed titan Alan Greenspan attempted to calm nerves is basic – markets at the extreme are driven by fear, greed, irrationality and panic. And that is much more in evidence when values are falling precipitously – the herd-mentality of panic-sales leads to price routs.

Emotion vs algorithm
That is not necessarily the case now because humans, for all their foibles, are not as influential. Much of the business in equities for sure, and to some extent on the LME, is computer-driven. The trend-setter when markets start to move swiftly is artificial intelligence, which dictates what, when and how to sell (and buy).

The algorithms very much dictate the flow, and although there are links between different asset-classes programmed in, sentiment swings and mood-changes are not profiled into computerized systems.

Sure – algorithms are designed by human beings, and they are getting cleverer. But the basic raison d’etre is to be as lightning fast as possible in reacting to nanosecond fluctuations.

An algorithm does not feel fear, it is not driven by greed, it does not have the capacity to over-react – it simply does what the program code says. As algorithms do not have a code that says: “Gosh – this looks bad, so carry on selling,” the system stops when it is programmed to do so.

Although the LME has a less-intrusive systems-based trading community, the behavior and the pattern is broadly the same as in the HFT-influenced equity arenas. There will be rapid movements, and wide fluctuations, but once they have run their course, the downswings may not be as exaggerated.

None of this makes life easy for LME dealers and the trade, but the challenge of taking advantage of increased price volatility, as well as increasing the need for industry price protection through hedging, is what the modern metals business should be.

It may be tough at times, but that is better than sideways markets and shallow price movements.

The post EXPERT VIEW: Metals sell-off – not as bad as it could have been? appeared first on FastMarkets.

Categories: Metals Industry News

EXPERT VIEW: Metals sell-off - not as bad as it could have been?

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 12:12
The early-February sell-off in London Metal Exchange base metals seems to have run its course for now, but it may have not been as extreme as it could have been, ironically because of the growing influence of computerized trading systems.
Categories: Metals Industry News

NORTH AMERICAN MORNING BRIEF 12/02: LME copper price recovers; Glencore’s Pasar copper smelter back online; HKEX chairman Chow to retire

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 12:00
The latest metal markets news and price moves to start the North American day on Monday February 12.
Categories: Metals Industry News

Pasar copper smelter back online after technical failure – Glencore

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 11:35
Glencore’s Pasar copper smelter has returned to operation after fixing a technical failure that led to a production halt last month, the company told Metal Bulletin.
Categories: Metals Industry News

LIVE FUTURES REPORT 12/02: LME copper price recovers 1.2%; lead continues to buck the trend

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 10:30
Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mostly higher during morning trading on Monday February 12, with the complex attempting to rebound from last week’s choppy trading conditions.
Categories: Metals Industry News

LME copper price recovers 1.2%; lead continues to buck the trend

Base Metals News - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 10:30

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mostly higher during morning trading on Monday February 12, with the complex attempting to rebound from last week’s choppy trading conditions.

The three-month copper price has recovered $89 and is trading back above $6,800 per tonne after dropping to a low of $6,733 per tonne last Friday.

“A strong open to the new week… led by copper that gapped on the open on what feels like Chinese short-covering ahead of the holidays,” Marex Spectron’s report said.

“Outside of some regional demand from arb and speculative traders ahead of Chinese New Year it is hard to pinpoint exactly why copper has rallied to the extent that it has but shorts have been forced to cover and there is undoubtedly a fear of missing out on a potentially bigger rally,” it added.

The dollar is back in negative territory which is also helping prices recoup some of their recent losses, but the rest of the complex is struggling to rally as high as copper.

Nickel prices continue to find support above $13,000 per tonne and recovered $135 – with tightened availability of nickel stocks underpinning prices. LME nickel stocks fell a net 1,044 tonnes this morning – the 15th consecutive day of declines.

The three-month aluminium price edged $11 per tonne but any strong rebound from Friday’s 2% fall was capped by a 22,000 tonne delivery into LME-listed warehouses in Asia.

“All eyes are on whether the global sell-off last week has run its course and with the Lunar New Year also getting under way this week, trading is likely to remain nervous and choppy,” Metal Bulletin analyst William Adams said.

Lead continues to trade in the opposite direction to the rest of the complex. After being the only metal in positive territory at Friday’s 5pm close – it is now the only metal to be trading lower this morning, falling $16.50 per tonne.

Base metals prices 

  • The three-month copper price was up $89 compared to Friday’s close price at $6,844 per tonne. Stocks declined a net 2,375 tonnes to 333,850 tonnes with 3,025 tonnes freshly cancelled.
  • Aluminium’s three-month price climbed $11 to $2,134 per tonne. Inventories increased 19,475 tonnes to 1,116,575 tonnes.
  • The three-month nickel price increased $135 to $13,105 per tonne. Stocks dipped 1,044 tonnes to 231,160 tonnes.
  • Zinc’s three-month price was most recently trading at $3,402 per tonne, an increase of $17. Inventories declined 2,700 tonnes to 156,950 tonnes.
  • The three-month lead price declined $16.50 to $2,517.50 per tonne. Stocks declined 1,450 tonnes to 123,825 tonnes.
  • Tin’s three-month price was $175 higher at $21,200 per tonne. Inventories increased 80 tonnes to 1,925 tonnes.

Currency moves and data releases

  • The dollar index was most recently down 0.12% to 90.22.
  • In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price was up 2.02% to $63.84 per barrel.
  • There are no major data releases today, but market participants will likely be keeping a close eye on the release of consumer inflation data from the United States later this week.
  • “US CPI data are likely to be the focus for markets this week given that inflation worries have been one of the triggers behind the recent equity and bond tumult,” ANZ Research noted on Monday.

 

The post LME copper price recovers 1.2%; lead continues to buck the trend appeared first on FastMarkets.

Categories: Metals Industry News

PEOPLE MOVES: HKEX chairman Chow to retire in April

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 09:40
Chow Chung Kong, chairman of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, will retire at the end of April this year, the exchange announced on Monday February 12.
Categories: Metals Industry News

SHFE vs LME physical arbitrage 12/02: Copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel

Base Metals Market - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 09:10
The arbitrage for copper, aluminium, zinc and nickel imported into China on Monday February 12*
Categories: Metals Industry News

Metals morning view: Metals prices rebound – expect choppy trading

Base Metals News - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 09:00

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange seem to have found buying interest this morning, Monday February 12, with all of the base metals, except lead (-0.3%), showing gains averaging 1%. The three-month copper price leads the way with a 1.8% rally to $6,870 per tonne – this after a low last Friday of $6,733 per tonne.

Volume has been high with 12,015 lots traded as of 07:09 am London time – the question now being whether last week’s risk-off sentiment has run its course. At the lows on Friday, the base metals prices were down from their recent highs by an average of 7.2%, ranged between a 9.2% fall in nickel prices and a 4.6% fall in tin prices.

The precious metals are also firmer this morning after experiencing broad-based weakness last week – prices are up by an average of 0.9%, led by a 1.3% rise in palladium prices, with gold prices up the least with a 0.6% rise to $1,323.56 per oz.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the base metals are mixed this morning – at the extremes, aluminium prices are up by 1.8% and tin prices are down by 1.3%, copper, lead and nickel prices are little changed and zinc prices are off by 0.7%. Copper prices are at 51,760 yuan ($8,222) per tonne, while spot copper prices in Changjiang are down by 0.2% at 51,130-51,290 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio stands at 7.54, down slightly from 7.53 on Friday.

In other metals in China, iron ore prices are down by 0.9% at 523 yuan per tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up by 0.2%, while gold prices are unchanged and silver prices are down by 0.1%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are rebounding, up by 1.27% at $63.37 per barrel, while the yield on US 10-year treasuries is strong at 2.87%, as is the German 10-year bund yield at 0.78%.

Equities in Asia are for the most part rebounding today: Nikkei (closed), Kospi (+0.90%), CSI 300 (+1.29%), Hang Seng (+0.64%), although the ASX 200 is down 0.30%. This follows a mixed performance in western markets on Friday, where in the United States the Dow Jones closed up by 1.38% at 24,190.90, and in Europe where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down by 1.52% at 3,325.99.

The dollar index is consolidating after last week’s rebound, it was recently quoted at 90.18, the low being 88.43 on January 25. The euro and sterling are weaker at 1.2277 and 1.3846 respectively, while the yen (108.61) is consolidating after recent strength and the Australian dollar (0.7817) is consolidating after two weeks of weakness. The yuan at 6.3119 is also off recent highs, while the other emerging currencies we follow are consolidating after recent weakness.

The economic agenda is light today with data on the US Federal budget balance – in addition, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members Gertjan Vlieghe and Ian McCafferty are speaking.

All eyes are on whether the global sell-off last week has run its course and with the Lunar New Year also getting underway this week, trading is likely to remain nervous and choppy. Underlying sentiment seems to be bullish but having had a shake-out last week, overhead resistance is likely to be even stronger now while the market adjusts to the increased volatility. We should get an update on how bullish sentiment is by seeing how well the dips are supported and the level of follow through buying.

Precious metals sold off in line with the other metals and markets highlighting risk–off, if weakness continues to be seen in other markets then there may well be some rotation out of equities and bonds into gold as a haven.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Metals morning view: Metals prices rebound – expect choppy trading appeared first on FastMarkets.

Categories: Metals Industry News

Pages

Subscribe to Allied Metal Group aggregator - Metals Industry News
Site content copyright © The Allied Metal Group, Inc.